Immigration Pipeline Analysis

Cross-dataset analysis: F-1 student visa → enrollment → PhD → OPT → H-1B → EB green card. How foreign nationals move through the US academic-to-employment pipeline.

A. Full Pipeline by Country

The funnel narrows dramatically. India has 350K students but only 2,649 earn PhDs. China earns 6,756 PhDs (more than India) but gets far fewer H-1B visas (32K vs 151K). EB green cards are the ultimate bottleneck — the entire pipeline produces more graduates than permanent residency slots can absorb.

Student → PhD → Work → Green Card Pipeline (Top 10 Countries)

Sources: SEVP SEVIS (enrollment), State Dept (F-1/H-1B visas), NSF SED (PhDs), State Dept (EB green cards)

B. China vs India — The Great Divergence

F-1 Student Visa Issuances

China peaked at 274K (FY2015) and collapsed to 83K. India surged past China in FY2024.

H-1B Work Visa Issuances

India dominates H-1B at 151K vs China's 32K. India grew 157% since 2010; China grew 182% but from a much smaller base.

C. Stay Rate vs Visa Refusal Rate

Countries with harder visa access tend to have higher stay rates. Iran has a 62% B-visa refusal rate and 91% of its PhD graduates intend to stay in the US. Saudi Arabia is the outlier: low refusal (20%) but only 14% stay rate. Bubble size = PhD count.

B-Visa Refusal Rate vs PhD Stay Intention (by Country)

Sources: State Dept B-visa refusal rates (FY2025), NSF SED Table 2-8 (% intending to stay, 2018-2024)

D. EB Green Card Bottleneck

PhD Production vs EB Green Cards Issued (Top 15 Countries)

China gets 19.7K EB visas but many are EB-5 investor visas (9.5K), not employment-based. India's EB wait times exceed 10 years.

Sources: NSF SED (PhDs, 2024), State Dept Table V (EB visas, FY2024)

E. National Pipeline Growth (Indexed to 2010)

STEM-OPT has grown 10x since 2010 while F-1 student visas are essentially flat. OPT — not H-1B — is now the primary post-graduation work authorization pathway. The gap between OPT growth and H-1B growth shows increasing reliance on temporary training programs over formal work visas.

Work Authorization Growth (2010 = 100)

Sources: ICE/SEVP (OPT/CPT), USCIS (H-1B petitions), State Dept (F-1/J-1/O-1 issuances)

F. STEM Students by Country × US State

Top 10 Countries × Top 10 States (SEVIS STEM, Mar 2026)

India-Texas (51K) and India-California (33K) are the densest cells. Chinese students are more evenly distributed.

Source: SEVP SEVIS STEM-designated program data, March 2026